Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
